Hello.
This week brought some encouraging signs that physical distancing was working to slow the spread of Covid-19 in the U.S., even as the number of deaths nationwide surpassed 2,000 per day. The economic impact of the pandemic is staggering — nearly 17 million people filed for unemployment in the past three weeks, double the number of filings from the two years following the 2008 financial crisis.
There is an uneasy equilibrium between these two pressures: downward force on the epidemic curve thanks to stay-at-home orders, and counterpressure to lift restrictions as economic damage from suppression efforts mounts. But with no vaccine, limited testing capacity, and the vast majority of people still not immune to the virus, resuming normal circulation too soon would return us to the same dire straits.
In this abridged holiday edition of the newsletter: how we’re faring under the pressure.
// Link Roundup
More on warnings ignored: An extraordinary look into how top federal health experts tried and failed to sound the alarm as the pandemic approached.
— “He Could Have Seen What Was Coming: Behind Trump’s Failure on the Virus.” Eric Lipton et. al., The New York Times.Before the fire: To accompany its blockbuster story the Times released a batch of emails from federal officials as they worked through the implications of the crisis as it approached. The emails are available here. This passage, dated February 20th, caught my eye:
“Remember the story about Mann Gulch? We are at the equivalent of about 5:44. I anticipate that when we reach 5:45, there is going to be chaos and panic to get anything in place. I doubt that what we would then hurriedly put in place will be any better than what they did on that cruise ship. As a consequence, would expect much the same results.”
“You’re basically right next to the nuclear reactor.” A first hand account of what it’s like to be in hospitals caring for Covid patients.
Deaths in New York City are more than double the average for this period…
…but nationwide the pandemic toll is likely an undercount, because of limited testing and scarce resources.
— “Coronavirus Death Toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count.” Emma Brown et. al., The Washington Post.Underlying health conditions are implicated in nearly 90 percent of Covid hospitalizations in the U.S., according to new data released by the CDC…
…But a huge share of Americans have these conditions, including hypertension and heart disease, which dramatically increase the risk of death from Covid for reasons that are not totally understood at present.
This long read on inequality and the pandemic is more than worth your time.
— “The Pandemic Will Cleave America in Two.” Joe Pinsker, The Atlantic.One of our best writers on disaster, Rebecca Solnit, offers this meditation on the possibilities for hope in the crisis: “At moments of immense change, we see with new clarity the systems – political, economic, social, ecological – in which we are immersed as they change around us. We see what’s strong, what’s weak, what’s corrupt, what matters and what doesn’t.”
— “‘The Impossible Has Already Happened’: what coronavirus can teach us about hope.” Rebecca Solnit, The Guardian.The polio epidemic of 1952 can teach us a lot about care in the current crisis.
— “The Outbreak That Invented Intensive Care.” Hannah Wunsch, Nature.In case you missed Queen Elizabeth’s speech to the U.K.: “I hope in the years to come everyone will be able to take pride in how they responded to this challenge. … We will meet again.”
// Enjoy the holiday
To everyone celebrating Passover and Easter this week/end, I wish you all the best, and will see you in the inbox next weekend. Thank you as always for reading.